An Honest Question

This is an honest question, even if it seems like a snarky one:

What do you think is going to be the longevity of 4th edition D&D?

I don’t mean “how long is it going to be on the shelves till Hasbro decides it’s time to milk the sucker population once again;” I’m sure that the first seeds of 5th edition have already been planted and are being nurtured as we speak (to be released no later than December 2012).

No, I’m not concerned with how long WotC will continue to support the line; I want to know how long it will be played.

Take B/X D&D, for example. It was published in 1981. I’m still playing it today, nearly 30 years later. Admittedly, I’m a weird dude, but there seems to be a lot of like-minded, strange folks circling the internet these days (at least judging by the sales my book has generated). Plus, there are more people picking up Labyrinth Lord, itself a B/X knock-off, which is bringing people around to acquiring their own copies of the original rules…and, of course, people like myself have been doing our part to introduce new players to the game (like Vince and Randy and Steve and Matt and Zach and Spencer, etc.).

Certainly, there are a lot fewer people playing B/X than there were in 1982…but I’d be willing to bet the number of people playing B/X (or a B/X derivative) has increased markedly from, say, 2001. In fact, based on my Baranof gaming group alone, B/X D&D is being played 900% more this year than last. That’s a tidy little increase, right?

And that’s just B/X D&D. I imagine that 1st edition AD&D is still “king” of the Old School crowd (all you geezers that can’t wrap your head around RACE as CLASS). And that particular version has been around for MORE than 30 years…since 1978 or ‘79, right? If there’s any Old School (pre-2000) version of D&D that’s MORE popular than 1st edition AD&D I’d be greatly surprised.

THAT is longevity folks. That’s what I’m talking about.

I could run a poll, but I’m sure my readership is skewed in a particular direction. If I had to hazard a guess, though, I’d say the various editions rank like this:

1 – AD&D (1st edition)
2 – OD&D
3 – B/X
4 – AD&D (2nd edition)
5 – BECMI (and Rules Cyclopedia)
6 – Basic D&D (Holmes edition)


With derivatives being in their respective category (and for what it’s worth, I’d imagine “Pathfinder” comes in at #2 on the list if you include it).

And by “rank” I’m talking about games actually being played on a regular basis (“regular” being defined as “at least once per month”).

Now part of the reason the list looks like this has to do with the retro-clones produced. OSRIC, Swords & Wizardry, Labyrinth Lord, Hackmaster, Castles & Crusades, Dark Dungeons, etc. all of these have helped re-kindle interest in the original games from which they were derived. I know Labyrinth Lord has done this for me.

But part of it has to do with clingy “love of the game” coupled with “quantity of resources for play.” 2nd edition AD&D actually had a longer run with TSR (and WotC) than 1st edition AD&D but the early 80s saw a HUGE amount of material published for D&D compared to the 90s. And while the quality of either is certainly debatable, there was a lot of staying power in the old stuff (possibly due in part to nostalgia…even in the 90s!...with old-timey folks).

Now, back to the original question: what do you think will be the staying power of 4th edition?

Not just: how long will the line be supported (3-5 years is a fair guesstimate)?

Not just: how popular will the line be (the thing is being marketed in book store chains across the country)?

But tell me: where do you think it will rank on my list 15-30 years from now? Will people be blogging about it and sharing stories on the internet? Will it still be PLAYED and enjoyed with any kind of movement/following? Or will it just be considered a curiosity like 3rd edition Gamma World or my Friends the TV Show trivia game?

I want folks to really take a hard look at this…or at Pathfinder…or at B/X…or whatever it is you’re playing these days. ‘Cause here’s my opinion on the subject:

1) Role-playing games have value beyond simple entertainment. I truly believe that.

2) Good RPGs can continue to entertain, teach, and inspire long past their cancellation date (I know B/X has done this for me).

Personally, I plan on keeping B/X alive and passing it on to the next generation as best I can. That’s my Quixotic nature, okay? Likewise, I plan on doing the same with other RPGs I find entertaining and worthwhile. Role-playing may be a niche hobby, but it’s one I wouldn’t mind seeing survive a few more decades.

I don’t think 4th edition fits the bill.

That doesn’t mean that (some) people aren’t going to find it fun to play…I’m sure some will. But similar to WotC’s version of Chainmail (remember THAT? Anyone still playing it?!) I don’t think anyone is going to pine for 4E when it’s gone. I don’t EVER expect to see a retro-clone of 4th edition D&D…but you know what? I don’t play the damn thing now.

Some of you DO play 4th edition, some of you have put money into Hasbro’s pockets encouraging them to continue their production, and I ask YOU folks: will you still be playing this game in 20-30 years?

Let me know. Thanks!

: )

[oh, and by the way: if you’d asked me in 1987 if I’d still be playing AD&D in 20 years I would have told you, “hell, yes…why would I ever stop?” Certainly, I went through a long, dry spell from 1989-1999 but even then, I never got rid of my old books, believing I would someday go back to it. On the other hand, the only reason I keep my 3rd edition books (besides their beautiful artwork and production values) is to remind myself why I will NEVER play a later edition of D&D EVER again, and to prevent myself from making an impulse/nostalgia purchase. Meanwhile, I buy up every copy of B/X I come across (not many), despite owning two-and-a-half copies already...because one never knows when they’ll all be gone!]